مشخصات پژوهش

صفحه نخست /Modelling the Frequency of ...
عنوان
Modelling the Frequency of Depression using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method
نوع پژوهش مقاله چاپ شده
کلیدواژه‌ها
Depression, Incidence, Time series, Stochastic process
چکیده
Introduction: Depression is a worldwide concern causing lots of adverse social consequences. Aim: To assess the stochastic processes of depression frequency through statistical modelling. Materials and Methods: The data contained the processes of depression frequency in Hamadan from April 2008 to March 2016. A total of 3252 patients, according to psychiatrist diagnosed based on DSM-IV criteria, were accounted. To model and forecast the depression incidence frequency, the time series analysis method, Holt-Winter exponential smoothing, was applied. Results: After a considerable decrease in the last months of 2010 which was followed by an increase in early 2011, a constant series of frequencies happened until 2015. The first months of 2015 are the beginning of the increase in the development of depression. Conclusions: Present findings demonstrated an increase in the incidence of depression during 2016-2018. The Holt-winter exponential smoothing method can be used as an appropriate statistical tool to analyse and forecast such data.
پژوهشگران علی قلعه ایها (نفر دوم)، زهرا تسلیمی (نفر ششم به بعد)، سعید یزدی راوندی (نفر ششم به بعد)